The public’s confidence in the economic outlook and stock investment declined slightly this month, but remained positive overall, a survey by Cathay Financial Holding Co (國泰金控) showed yesterday.
Of the respondents, 34.2 percent expect the nation’s economy to improve in the next six months, while 32.1 percent are anticipating negative twists and 29 percent believe things would remain steady, the survey said after polling 16,543 customers online between May 1 and May 7.
That was a small retreat from last month, but stayed in optimistic territory, in line with the government’s business climate monitor system flashing “green,” which indicated steady economic growth, the conglomerate said.
Photo: CNA
The respondents are also upbeat about stock investment, although less optimistic compared with last month, after the TAIEX repeatedly hit record highs this month.
The survey also showed that 41.2 percent of respondents believe the TAIEX would climb higher moving forward, 26.8 percent anticipate corrections, 19 percent expect no changes and 13 percent said they do not know.
The local bourse has received fund inflows from foreign institutional players and mutual funds featuring quarterly or monthly distributions of cash dividends.
Taiwan’s exchange-traded fund market increased to NT$2.05 trillion (US$63.59 billion) as of Tuesday last week, posting an average 13.41 percent return for 60 funds this year, government data showed. The volume suggested a 40 percent spike from NT$1.46 trillion at the end of last year.
The impressive showings came at the cost of savings, such as insurance policies, which Taiwanese use to protect against retirement and old age.
Of the respondents, 34.4 percent said they would raise stakes in stock holdings, 14.9 percent intended to cut positions and 50.7 percent said they would maintain the status quo, the survey found.
Most people, 65 percent, said their income would stay the same in the coming six months, while 22.8 percent are looking at wealth gains and 12.2 percent at wealth erosions, the survey said.
When it comes to employment, 30.4 percent believe the job market would become more difficult going forward, compared with 19.8 percent who think finding jobs would become easier while 42.4 percent had neutral views, it added.
Despite the backdrop, 33.2 percent showed interest in purchasing big-ticket items, 21.7 percent said they would lower their budget and a relative majority, 45.1 percent, would not change their spending, it found.
Furthermore, a relative majority of 42.8 percent said that the need to declare personal income this month would not affect their funds or share holdings, the survey said.
The US dollar was trading at NT$29.7 at 10am today on the Taipei Foreign Exchange, as the New Taiwan dollar gained NT$1.364 from the previous close last week. The NT dollar continued to rise today, after surging 3.07 percent on Friday. After opening at NT$30.91, the NT dollar gained more than NT$1 in just 15 minutes, briefly passing the NT$30 mark. Before the US Department of the Treasury's semi-annual currency report came out, expectations that the NT dollar would keep rising were already building. The NT dollar on Friday closed at NT$31.064, up by NT$0.953 — a 3.07 percent single-day gain. Today,
‘SHORT TERM’: The local currency would likely remain strong in the near term, driven by anticipated US trade pressure, capital inflows and expectations of a US Fed rate cut The US dollar is expected to fall below NT$30 in the near term, as traders anticipate increased pressure from Washington for Taiwan to allow the New Taiwan dollar to appreciate, Cathay United Bank (國泰世華銀行) chief economist Lin Chi-chao (林啟超) said. Following a sharp drop in the greenback against the NT dollar on Friday, Lin told the Central News Agency that the local currency is likely to remain strong in the short term, driven in part by market psychology surrounding anticipated US policy pressure. On Friday, the US dollar fell NT$0.953, or 3.07 percent, closing at NT$31.064 — its lowest level since Jan.
The New Taiwan dollar and Taiwanese stocks surged on signs that trade tensions between the world’s top two economies might start easing and as US tech earnings boosted the outlook of the nation’s semiconductor exports. The NT dollar strengthened as much as 3.8 percent versus the US dollar to 30.815, the biggest intraday gain since January 2011, closing at NT$31.064. The benchmark TAIEX jumped 2.73 percent to outperform the region’s equity gauges. Outlook for global trade improved after China said it is assessing possible trade talks with the US, providing a boost for the nation’s currency and shares. As the NT dollar
PRESSURE EXPECTED: The appreciation of the NT dollar reflected expectations that Washington would press Taiwan to boost its currency against the US dollar, dealers said Taiwan’s export-oriented semiconductor and auto part manufacturers are expecting their margins to be affected by large foreign exchange losses as the New Taiwan dollar continued to appreciate sharply against the US dollar yesterday. Among major semiconductor manufacturers, ASE Technology Holding Co (日月光), the world’s largest integrated circuit (IC) packaging and testing services provider, said that whenever the NT dollar rises NT$1 against the greenback, its gross margin is cut by about 1.5 percent. The NT dollar traded as strong as NT$29.59 per US dollar before trimming gains to close NT$0.919, or 2.96 percent, higher at NT$30.145 yesterday in Taipei trading
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